Tips
• Click a legend name to toggle; double-click to isolate.
• Click on a line/point to highlight that horse across both charts; double-click the background to reset.
• Lines are right-aligned: most-recent race is always on the far right.
Bayesian Win Probabilities from Past Speeds
Summary — Today’s Card
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| FERAL |
5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
4 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
85.0 |
| TARTABULL |
11 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
53 |
3 |
3.9 |
8.4 |
86.0 |
| REMEMBER MAMBA |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.9 |
8.5 |
85.1 |
| AMBASSADOR BLUE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
52 |
7 |
4.4 |
7.9 |
84.2 |
| FRANKLIN DELANO |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
49 |
8 |
3.7 |
8.8 |
85.6 |
| QUIET POWER |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.6 |
9.3 |
85.1 |
| BOTTAS |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.2 |
9.4 |
85.1 |
| AMADOR |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1 |
8 |
2.9 |
11.9 |
86.5 |
| CONQUERING FORCE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.3 |
9.1 |
85.1 |
| GRUNGE |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.4 |
10.0 |
85.1 |
| AKKADIAN |
10 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.0 |
9.0 |
85.1 |
| 2 |
| BEUYS (IRE) |
4 |
50.0 |
10.0 |
60.0 |
103 |
4 |
17.4 |
14.8 |
100.3 |
| VESTING (IRE) |
8 |
30.0 |
20.0 |
50.0 |
108 |
3 |
13.4 |
5.0 |
93.9 |
| CRYSTAL QUEST |
7 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
108 |
2 |
15.9 |
12.7 |
100.2 |
| ACTIVIST INVESTING (GB) |
1 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
40.0 |
92 |
2 |
6.3 |
13.8 |
96.0 |
| UNCAGED |
9 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
40.0 |
81 |
7 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
83.8 |
| THEN |
3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
99 |
1 |
9.7 |
20.9 |
101.4 |
| EARLY ADOPTER (GB) |
1 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
28.6 |
93 |
7 |
7.2 |
10.5 |
96.4 |
| SOCIETY MAN |
10 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
84 |
7 |
7.0 |
4.5 |
88.9 |
| NOTED |
5 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
74 |
6 |
3.9 |
0.8 |
81.0 |
| LE GRIS |
11 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
90 |
1 |
5.5 |
2.3 |
89.0 |
| BAKERS STREET |
2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
22.2 |
92 |
7 |
3.7 |
10.2 |
94.2 |
| RUNGIUS |
6 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
103 |
5 |
7.7 |
2.3 |
90.4 |
| 3 |
| GLAMORIZE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.0 |
11.2 |
77.7 |
| TOUCH OF MAGIC |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.7 |
10.6 |
77.7 |
| FIVE BARS |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
10.7 |
77.7 |
| ICECREAMFOREVRYONE |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.8 |
11.0 |
77.7 |
| JUST TELL ANNE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
12.0 |
77.7 |
| CELEBRITY QUEST |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.1 |
10.6 |
77.7 |
| BET THE GRAY |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.9 |
10.8 |
77.7 |
| ZEN YOGA |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.8 |
11.5 |
77.7 |
| TAM TAM |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.3 |
11.5 |
77.7 |
| 4 |
| MERICA'S BACK |
10 |
80.0 |
0.0 |
80.0 |
86 |
2 |
20.8 |
29.5 |
82.3 |
| ALZERO |
1 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
4 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
65.1 |
| CALL BOB |
8 |
37.5 |
0.0 |
37.5 |
61 |
8 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
68.1 |
| KEEPINITREAL |
7 |
25.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
76 |
3 |
12.2 |
13.5 |
71.6 |
| EIGHTY GOLD |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
39 |
9 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
45.9 |
| SPEIGHTFUL STORM |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
7 |
14.2 |
13.3 |
59.7 |
| GAMEBRED |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
65 |
5 |
6.9 |
4.2 |
57.1 |
| LIBERTY RISING |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
41 |
8 |
3.4 |
1.3 |
50.2 |
| MOZAMBIQUE |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
49 |
3 |
3.9 |
6.8 |
53.9 |
| COACH PITINO |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
57 |
8 |
11.1 |
9.6 |
52.5 |
| LONG POUR |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
44 |
9 |
9.6 |
5.6 |
39.0 |
| 5 |
| ANNASCAUL |
6 |
80.0 |
20.0 |
100.0 |
84 |
2 |
16.0 |
17.5 |
87.9 |
| SILSBEE |
10 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
88 |
4 |
11.3 |
9.9 |
77.1 |
| ALPINE GIANT |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
70 |
1 |
6.8 |
1.2 |
49.4 |
| MARVELOUS MADISON |
4 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
79 |
7 |
11.0 |
22.6 |
84.9 |
| TURRIGA |
14 |
16.7 |
25.0 |
41.7 |
78 |
3 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
71.7 |
| FABULOUS FOX |
3 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
51 |
3 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
60.1 |
| OLIVIA'S GRACE |
7 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
79 |
1 |
7.0 |
5.9 |
74.8 |
| PHOEBEINWONDERLAND |
8 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
77 |
5 |
7.4 |
5.8 |
69.2 |
| UNICORN CAKE |
16 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
83 |
2 |
4.8 |
3.1 |
75.2 |
| RUNNING RIO |
12 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
75 |
3 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
77.0 |
| QUICK POWER NAP |
13 |
25.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
78 |
4 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
75.7 |
| NINA KAY |
15 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
85 |
2 |
8.7 |
17.2 |
83.7 |
| LONG LEGGED QUEEN |
5 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
72 |
4 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
64.4 |
| INFLAMMABELLE |
2 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
79 |
2 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
59.2 |
| VALENTINE GIFT |
9 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
57 |
3 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
61.0 |
| SHAMAN PRINCESS |
11 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
71 |
3 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
66.7 |
| 6 |
| VINO VICI |
6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
80 |
3 |
6.8 |
4.7 |
79.4 |
| MY WORLD |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.6 |
11.9 |
75.9 |
| PAUL'S RECOVERY |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.1 |
12.5 |
75.9 |
| DR. KAPUR |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.3 |
11.6 |
75.9 |
| DARK ASSAULT |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
11.1 |
75.9 |
| BIG DOM |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.5 |
12.4 |
75.9 |
| PEACE NEGOTIATOR |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.0 |
11.7 |
75.9 |
| STIMULATE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.0 |
12.1 |
75.9 |
| OLD TIME ROCKNROLL |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.0 |
11.9 |
75.9 |
| 7 |
| MAY DAY READY |
3 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
85.7 |
100 |
4 |
19.9 |
16.5 |
86.4 |
| EPONINE (IRE) |
2 |
50.0 |
33.3 |
83.3 |
80 |
6 |
26.0 |
25.3 |
92.8 |
| PLAY WITH FIRE |
1 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
100 |
2 |
18.6 |
21.7 |
90.7 |
| SCARLET SANDS |
5 |
14.3 |
37.5 |
51.8 |
89 |
1 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
83.8 |
| WARMING |
4 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
96 |
5 |
17.0 |
18.7 |
89.2 |
| REINING FLOWERS |
6 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
100 |
3 |
9.6 |
8.2 |
82.4 |
| 8 |
| SWEET ANNIVERSARY |
4 |
41.7 |
41.7 |
83.3 |
49 |
6 |
7.2 |
2.9 |
71.4 |
| TRALEE GIRL |
9 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
75 |
1 |
10.2 |
9.1 |
76.1 |
| TONGUE TWISTER |
12 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
84 |
3 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
82.8 |
| GALLANT GRETA |
2 |
28.6 |
14.3 |
42.9 |
83 |
2 |
7.5 |
10.3 |
77.6 |
| LOVEUMISSUMEANIT |
8 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
42.9 |
96 |
1 |
10.3 |
6.8 |
72.8 |
| DIVIDEND RECAP |
6 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
72 |
1 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
72.3 |
| DREAM ON CARA |
15 |
0.0 |
27.3 |
27.3 |
67 |
1 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
71.5 |
| BACKCHECK |
5 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
71 |
5 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
67.1 |
| SUMMER WHIRL |
10 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
68 |
4 |
8.2 |
7.2 |
79.2 |
| VINO SAMARA |
11 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
70 |
1 |
3.1 |
5.2 |
70.4 |
| ISLAND FOX |
14 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
77 |
6 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
74.0 |
| HONORABLE BECKY |
3 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
73 |
3 |
3.8 |
6.8 |
73.9 |
| SPIRIT OF ESTHER |
1 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
29 |
5 |
6.1 |
10.2 |
77.8 |
| LADY JASMINE |
7 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
58 |
12 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
66.8 |
| ROAGNA |
13 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
81 |
4 |
8.3 |
6.9 |
80.7 |
| HIGHER FORCE |
16 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
75 |
8 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
72.5 |
| 9 |
| THORPEDO ANNA |
7 |
41.7 |
75.0 |
116.7 |
109 |
1 |
23.2 |
28.1 |
102.1 |
| RANDOMIZED |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
105 |
1 |
14.5 |
8.7 |
89.3 |
| RAGING SEA |
3 |
16.7 |
58.3 |
75.0 |
88 |
3 |
11.4 |
10.1 |
94.0 |
| BERNIETAKESCHARGE |
5 |
0.0 |
57.1 |
57.1 |
101 |
1 |
10.1 |
12.9 |
87.8 |
| LESLIE'S ROSE |
6 |
11.1 |
40.0 |
51.1 |
108 |
1 |
16.4 |
7.9 |
84.6 |
| DAZZLING MOVE |
2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
22.2 |
103 |
2 |
11.1 |
14.1 |
95.3 |
| DORTH VADER |
4 |
0.0 |
18.2 |
18.2 |
100 |
4 |
13.3 |
18.3 |
98.2 |
| 10 |
| MIDLAND MONEY |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
103 |
1 |
13.8 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| VERIFIRE |
5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
109 |
1 |
12.0 |
12.3 |
91.5 |
| SMOKEN WICKED |
6 |
54.5 |
36.4 |
90.9 |
108 |
1 |
13.2 |
10.9 |
96.2 |
| PATCH ADAMS |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
114 |
1 |
18.1 |
21.5 |
100.3 |
| BARNES |
3 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
75.0 |
79 |
5 |
10.2 |
12.8 |
92.8 |
| CHANCER MCPATRICK |
4 |
12.5 |
50.0 |
62.5 |
102 |
1 |
10.0 |
7.7 |
91.7 |
| CAPTAIN COOK |
7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
102 |
3 |
10.7 |
8.5 |
91.7 |
| MADAKET ROAD |
8 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
109 |
2 |
11.9 |
13.8 |
97.1 |
| 11 |
| MYSTIC LAKE |
1 |
40.0 |
60.0 |
100.0 |
94 |
1 |
11.0 |
10.1 |
93.8 |
| CLARET BERET |
5 |
10.0 |
50.0 |
60.0 |
111 |
2 |
11.9 |
14.5 |
96.0 |
| HALINA'S FORTE |
4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
103 |
1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
88.3 |
| ZEITLOS |
6 |
0.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
101 |
2 |
12.6 |
10.3 |
94.8 |
| HOPE ROAD |
9 |
18.2 |
36.4 |
54.5 |
97 |
3 |
16.7 |
17.3 |
97.8 |
| BRIGHTWORK |
2 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
89 |
8 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
88.6 |
| SCYLLA |
7 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
99 |
3 |
14.5 |
16.0 |
98.1 |
| MY MANE SQUEEZE |
8 |
10.0 |
30.0 |
40.0 |
101 |
1 |
10.5 |
14.8 |
97.3 |
| MAJESTIC OOPS |
3 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
100 |
2 |
12.2 |
8.1 |
89.3 |
| 12 |
| BOOK'EM DANNO |
4 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
115 |
1 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
104.8 |
| BISHOPS BAY |
2 |
10.0 |
70.0 |
80.0 |
111 |
1 |
12.2 |
15.5 |
99.6 |
| MOST WANTED |
1 |
12.5 |
62.5 |
75.0 |
101 |
1 |
10.7 |
7.5 |
90.5 |
| FULL MOON MADNESS |
3 |
14.3 |
42.9 |
57.1 |
103 |
1 |
8.7 |
6.6 |
95.2 |
| OVER AND OLLIE |
9 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
50.0 |
112 |
1 |
6.8 |
6.1 |
95.1 |
| EXTRA ANEJO |
5 |
0.0 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
94 |
3 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
94.2 |
| MULLIKIN |
7 |
9.1 |
36.4 |
45.5 |
110 |
2 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
102.5 |
| CRAZY MASON |
6 |
0.0 |
36.4 |
36.4 |
98 |
6 |
7.4 |
5.4 |
95.6 |
| SCOTLAND |
8 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
109 |
3 |
6.5 |
7.1 |
96.5 |
| DOC SULLIVAN |
11 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
109 |
1 |
6.4 |
11.1 |
99.7 |
| HOLD MY BOURBON |
10 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
107 |
1 |
4.9 |
3.2 |
92.0 |
| 13 |
| SOVEREIGNTY |
4 |
62.5 |
62.5 |
125.0 |
113 |
1 |
29.1 |
18.9 |
107.7 |
| MCAFEE |
5 |
57.1 |
14.3 |
71.4 |
94 |
2 |
15.2 |
12.8 |
102.9 |
| STRATEGIC FOCUS |
3 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
66.7 |
101 |
3 |
22.6 |
31.5 |
109.9 |
| MAGNITUDE |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
111 |
1 |
20.1 |
21.5 |
106.9 |
| BRACKET BUSTER |
2 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
97 |
4 |
12.9 |
15.3 |
105.2 |
| 14 |
| SKY LOW LOW |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
7 |
15.8 |
16.8 |
76.2 |
| ADDAGIRL ADDIE |
13 |
44.4 |
0.0 |
44.4 |
65 |
2 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
64.9 |
| DANCIN JANE |
1 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
58 |
3 |
11.4 |
9.0 |
71.9 |
| AMELIA |
2 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
71 |
5 |
8.4 |
7.5 |
66.5 |
| RAD LLAMA |
10 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
66 |
6 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
72.4 |
| PRINCESS SUMMER |
16 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
69 |
4 |
8.1 |
6.1 |
64.5 |
| TIZALLMINE |
11 |
16.7 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
32 |
6 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
46.6 |
| FIRE AGATE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
5 |
13.5 |
12.7 |
71.6 |
| BANK ON BEBE |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
26 |
7 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
48.1 |
| PROFESSOR GRACE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
58 |
4 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
63.1 |
| ARGENTIERA |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
4 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
65.6 |
| HEAVENS LEE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
40 |
5 |
2.4 |
5.6 |
59.7 |
| CATHOLIC EDITION |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
3 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
66.3 |
| I HEARD SOMETHINGS |
12 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
46 |
4 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
52.3 |
| FORGET TOMORROW |
14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
55 |
6 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
59.7 |
| MY GORGEOUS |
15 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
31 |
7 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
55.3 |
Leaderboard — Top Picks by Race
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| FERAL |
5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
4 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
85.0 |
| TARTABULL |
11 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
53 |
3 |
3.9 |
8.4 |
86.0 |
| REMEMBER MAMBA |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.9 |
8.5 |
85.1 |
| 2 |
| BEUYS (IRE) |
4 |
50.0 |
10.0 |
60.0 |
103 |
4 |
17.4 |
14.8 |
100.3 |
| VESTING (IRE) |
8 |
30.0 |
20.0 |
50.0 |
108 |
3 |
13.4 |
5.0 |
93.9 |
| CRYSTAL QUEST |
7 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
108 |
2 |
15.9 |
12.7 |
100.2 |
| 3 |
| GLAMORIZE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.0 |
11.2 |
77.7 |
| TOUCH OF MAGIC |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.7 |
10.6 |
77.7 |
| FIVE BARS |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
10.7 |
77.7 |
| 4 |
| MERICA'S BACK |
10 |
80.0 |
0.0 |
80.0 |
86 |
2 |
20.8 |
29.5 |
82.3 |
| ALZERO |
1 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
4 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
65.1 |
| CALL BOB |
8 |
37.5 |
0.0 |
37.5 |
61 |
8 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
68.1 |
| 5 |
| ANNASCAUL |
6 |
80.0 |
20.0 |
100.0 |
84 |
2 |
16.0 |
17.5 |
87.9 |
| SILSBEE |
10 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
88 |
4 |
11.3 |
9.9 |
77.1 |
| ALPINE GIANT |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
70 |
1 |
6.8 |
1.2 |
49.4 |
| 6 |
| VINO VICI |
6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
80 |
3 |
6.8 |
4.7 |
79.4 |
| MY WORLD |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.6 |
11.9 |
75.9 |
| PAUL'S RECOVERY |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.1 |
12.5 |
75.9 |
| 7 |
| MAY DAY READY |
3 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
85.7 |
100 |
4 |
19.9 |
16.5 |
86.4 |
| EPONINE (IRE) |
2 |
50.0 |
33.3 |
83.3 |
80 |
6 |
26.0 |
25.3 |
92.8 |
| PLAY WITH FIRE |
1 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
100 |
2 |
18.6 |
21.7 |
90.7 |
| 8 |
| SWEET ANNIVERSARY |
4 |
41.7 |
41.7 |
83.3 |
49 |
6 |
7.2 |
2.9 |
71.4 |
| TRALEE GIRL |
9 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
75 |
1 |
10.2 |
9.1 |
76.1 |
| TONGUE TWISTER |
12 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
84 |
3 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
82.8 |
| 9 |
| THORPEDO ANNA |
7 |
41.7 |
75.0 |
116.7 |
109 |
1 |
23.2 |
28.1 |
102.1 |
| RANDOMIZED |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
105 |
1 |
14.5 |
8.7 |
89.3 |
| RAGING SEA |
3 |
16.7 |
58.3 |
75.0 |
88 |
3 |
11.4 |
10.1 |
94.0 |
| 10 |
| MIDLAND MONEY |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
103 |
1 |
13.8 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| VERIFIRE |
5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
109 |
1 |
12.0 |
12.3 |
91.5 |
| SMOKEN WICKED |
6 |
54.5 |
36.4 |
90.9 |
108 |
1 |
13.2 |
10.9 |
96.2 |
| 11 |
| MYSTIC LAKE |
1 |
40.0 |
60.0 |
100.0 |
94 |
1 |
11.0 |
10.1 |
93.8 |
| CLARET BERET |
5 |
10.0 |
50.0 |
60.0 |
111 |
2 |
11.9 |
14.5 |
96.0 |
| HALINA'S FORTE |
4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
103 |
1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
88.3 |
| 12 |
| BOOK'EM DANNO |
4 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
115 |
1 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
104.8 |
| BISHOPS BAY |
2 |
10.0 |
70.0 |
80.0 |
111 |
1 |
12.2 |
15.5 |
99.6 |
| MOST WANTED |
1 |
12.5 |
62.5 |
75.0 |
101 |
1 |
10.7 |
7.5 |
90.5 |
| 13 |
| SOVEREIGNTY |
4 |
62.5 |
62.5 |
125.0 |
113 |
1 |
29.1 |
18.9 |
107.7 |
| MCAFEE |
5 |
57.1 |
14.3 |
71.4 |
94 |
2 |
15.2 |
12.8 |
102.9 |
| STRATEGIC FOCUS |
3 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
66.7 |
101 |
3 |
22.6 |
31.5 |
109.9 |
| 14 |
| SKY LOW LOW |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
7 |
15.8 |
16.8 |
76.2 |
| ADDAGIRL ADDIE |
13 |
44.4 |
0.0 |
44.4 |
65 |
2 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
64.9 |
| DANCIN JANE |
1 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
58 |
3 |
11.4 |
9.0 |
71.9 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| AMADOR |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1 |
8 |
2.9 |
11.9 |
86.5 |
| GRUNGE |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.4 |
10.0 |
85.1 |
| BOTTAS |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.2 |
9.4 |
85.1 |
| 2 |
| THEN |
3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
99 |
1 |
9.7 |
20.9 |
101.4 |
| BEUYS (IRE) |
4 |
50.0 |
10.0 |
60.0 |
103 |
4 |
17.4 |
14.8 |
100.3 |
| ACTIVIST INVESTING (GB) |
1 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
40.0 |
92 |
2 |
6.3 |
13.8 |
96.0 |
| 3 |
| JUST TELL ANNE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
12.0 |
77.7 |
| ZEN YOGA |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
10.8 |
11.5 |
77.7 |
| TAM TAM |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.3 |
11.5 |
77.7 |
| 4 |
| MERICA'S BACK |
10 |
80.0 |
0.0 |
80.0 |
86 |
2 |
20.8 |
29.5 |
82.3 |
| KEEPINITREAL |
7 |
25.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
76 |
3 |
12.2 |
13.5 |
71.6 |
| SPEIGHTFUL STORM |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
7 |
14.2 |
13.3 |
59.7 |
| 5 |
| MARVELOUS MADISON |
4 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
79 |
7 |
11.0 |
22.6 |
84.9 |
| ANNASCAUL |
6 |
80.0 |
20.0 |
100.0 |
84 |
2 |
16.0 |
17.5 |
87.9 |
| NINA KAY |
15 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
85 |
2 |
8.7 |
17.2 |
83.7 |
| 6 |
| PAUL'S RECOVERY |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.1 |
12.5 |
75.9 |
| BIG DOM |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.5 |
12.4 |
75.9 |
| STIMULATE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.0 |
12.1 |
75.9 |
| 7 |
| EPONINE (IRE) |
2 |
50.0 |
33.3 |
83.3 |
80 |
6 |
26.0 |
25.3 |
92.8 |
| PLAY WITH FIRE |
1 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
100 |
2 |
18.6 |
21.7 |
90.7 |
| WARMING |
4 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
96 |
5 |
17.0 |
18.7 |
89.2 |
| 8 |
| GALLANT GRETA |
2 |
28.6 |
14.3 |
42.9 |
83 |
2 |
7.5 |
10.3 |
77.6 |
| SPIRIT OF ESTHER |
1 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
29 |
5 |
6.1 |
10.2 |
77.8 |
| TONGUE TWISTER |
12 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
84 |
3 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
82.8 |
| 9 |
| THORPEDO ANNA |
7 |
41.7 |
75.0 |
116.7 |
109 |
1 |
23.2 |
28.1 |
102.1 |
| DORTH VADER |
4 |
0.0 |
18.2 |
18.2 |
100 |
4 |
13.3 |
18.3 |
98.2 |
| DAZZLING MOVE |
2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
22.2 |
103 |
2 |
11.1 |
14.1 |
95.3 |
| 10 |
| PATCH ADAMS |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
114 |
1 |
18.1 |
21.5 |
100.3 |
| MADAKET ROAD |
8 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
109 |
2 |
11.9 |
13.8 |
97.1 |
| BARNES |
3 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
75.0 |
79 |
5 |
10.2 |
12.8 |
92.8 |
| 11 |
| HOPE ROAD |
9 |
18.2 |
36.4 |
54.5 |
97 |
3 |
16.7 |
17.3 |
97.8 |
| SCYLLA |
7 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
99 |
3 |
14.5 |
16.0 |
98.1 |
| MY MANE SQUEEZE |
8 |
10.0 |
30.0 |
40.0 |
101 |
1 |
10.5 |
14.8 |
97.3 |
| 12 |
| BOOK'EM DANNO |
4 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
115 |
1 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
104.8 |
| BISHOPS BAY |
2 |
10.0 |
70.0 |
80.0 |
111 |
1 |
12.2 |
15.5 |
99.6 |
| MULLIKIN |
7 |
9.1 |
36.4 |
45.5 |
110 |
2 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
102.5 |
| 13 |
| STRATEGIC FOCUS |
3 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
66.7 |
101 |
3 |
22.6 |
31.5 |
109.9 |
| MAGNITUDE |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
111 |
1 |
20.1 |
21.5 |
106.9 |
| SOVEREIGNTY |
4 |
62.5 |
62.5 |
125.0 |
113 |
1 |
29.1 |
18.9 |
107.7 |
| 14 |
| SKY LOW LOW |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
7 |
15.8 |
16.8 |
76.2 |
| FIRE AGATE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
5 |
13.5 |
12.7 |
71.6 |
| RAD LLAMA |
10 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
66 |
6 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
72.4 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| QUIET POWER |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.6 |
9.3 |
85.1 |
| CONQUERING FORCE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.3 |
9.1 |
85.1 |
| AKKADIAN |
10 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.0 |
9.0 |
85.1 |
| 2 |
| BEUYS (IRE) |
4 |
50.0 |
10.0 |
60.0 |
103 |
4 |
17.4 |
14.8 |
100.3 |
| CRYSTAL QUEST |
7 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
108 |
2 |
15.9 |
12.7 |
100.2 |
| VESTING (IRE) |
8 |
30.0 |
20.0 |
50.0 |
108 |
3 |
13.4 |
5.0 |
93.9 |
| 3 |
| CELEBRITY QUEST |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.1 |
10.6 |
77.7 |
| FIVE BARS |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
10.7 |
77.7 |
| JUST TELL ANNE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
11.7 |
12.0 |
77.7 |
| 4 |
| MERICA'S BACK |
10 |
80.0 |
0.0 |
80.0 |
86 |
2 |
20.8 |
29.5 |
82.3 |
| SPEIGHTFUL STORM |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
7 |
14.2 |
13.3 |
59.7 |
| KEEPINITREAL |
7 |
25.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
76 |
3 |
12.2 |
13.5 |
71.6 |
| 5 |
| ANNASCAUL |
6 |
80.0 |
20.0 |
100.0 |
84 |
2 |
16.0 |
17.5 |
87.9 |
| SILSBEE |
10 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
88 |
4 |
11.3 |
9.9 |
77.1 |
| MARVELOUS MADISON |
4 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
50.0 |
79 |
7 |
11.0 |
22.6 |
84.9 |
| 6 |
| BIG DOM |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.5 |
12.4 |
75.9 |
| DR. KAPUR |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.3 |
11.6 |
75.9 |
| STIMULATE |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.0 |
12.1 |
75.9 |
| 7 |
| EPONINE (IRE) |
2 |
50.0 |
33.3 |
83.3 |
80 |
6 |
26.0 |
25.3 |
92.8 |
| MAY DAY READY |
3 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
85.7 |
100 |
4 |
19.9 |
16.5 |
86.4 |
| PLAY WITH FIRE |
1 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
100 |
2 |
18.6 |
21.7 |
90.7 |
| 8 |
| TONGUE TWISTER |
12 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
84 |
3 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
82.8 |
| LOVEUMISSUMEANIT |
8 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
42.9 |
96 |
1 |
10.3 |
6.8 |
72.8 |
| TRALEE GIRL |
9 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66.7 |
75 |
1 |
10.2 |
9.1 |
76.1 |
| 9 |
| THORPEDO ANNA |
7 |
41.7 |
75.0 |
116.7 |
109 |
1 |
23.2 |
28.1 |
102.1 |
| LESLIE'S ROSE |
6 |
11.1 |
40.0 |
51.1 |
108 |
1 |
16.4 |
7.9 |
84.6 |
| RANDOMIZED |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
105 |
1 |
14.5 |
8.7 |
89.3 |
| 10 |
| PATCH ADAMS |
1 |
33.3 |
50.0 |
83.3 |
114 |
1 |
18.1 |
21.5 |
100.3 |
| MIDLAND MONEY |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
103 |
1 |
13.8 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| SMOKEN WICKED |
6 |
54.5 |
36.4 |
90.9 |
108 |
1 |
13.2 |
10.9 |
96.2 |
| 11 |
| HOPE ROAD |
9 |
18.2 |
36.4 |
54.5 |
97 |
3 |
16.7 |
17.3 |
97.8 |
| SCYLLA |
7 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
99 |
3 |
14.5 |
16.0 |
98.1 |
| ZEITLOS |
6 |
0.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
101 |
2 |
12.6 |
10.3 |
94.8 |
| 12 |
| BOOK'EM DANNO |
4 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
115 |
1 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
104.8 |
| MULLIKIN |
7 |
9.1 |
36.4 |
45.5 |
110 |
2 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
102.5 |
| BISHOPS BAY |
2 |
10.0 |
70.0 |
80.0 |
111 |
1 |
12.2 |
15.5 |
99.6 |
| 13 |
| SOVEREIGNTY |
4 |
62.5 |
62.5 |
125.0 |
113 |
1 |
29.1 |
18.9 |
107.7 |
| STRATEGIC FOCUS |
3 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
66.7 |
101 |
3 |
22.6 |
31.5 |
109.9 |
| MAGNITUDE |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
111 |
1 |
20.1 |
21.5 |
106.9 |
| 14 |
| SKY LOW LOW |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
7 |
15.8 |
16.8 |
76.2 |
| FIRE AGATE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
5 |
13.5 |
12.7 |
71.6 |
| DANCIN JANE |
1 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
58 |
3 |
11.4 |
9.0 |
71.9 |
Per-Race Deep Dive (Interactive, Right-Aligned, Linked; NA-safe)
Race 1 — Field Overview
Race 2 — Field Overview
Race 3 — Field Overview
Race 4 — Field Overview
Race 5 — Field Overview
Race 6 — Field Overview
Race 7 — Field Overview
Race 8 — Field Overview
Race 9 — Field Overview
Race 10 — Field Overview
Race 11 — Field Overview
Race 12 — Field Overview
Race 13 — Field Overview
Race 14 — Field Overview
Appendix — Raw Parsed Rows (sample)
| race_index |
horse_name |
post |
speed_last |
speed_best |
speed_trend |
finish_last |
dist_last_f |
| 1 |
REMEMBER MAMBA |
1 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
AMBASSADOR BLUE |
2 |
52 |
52 |
0.0000000 |
7 |
6.5 |
| 1 |
FRANKLIN DELANO |
3 |
49 |
49 |
0.0000000 |
8 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
QUIET POWER |
4 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
FERAL |
5 |
78 |
78 |
0.0000000 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
BOTTAS |
6 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
AMADOR |
7 |
1 |
1 |
0.0000000 |
8 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
CONQUERING FORCE |
8 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
GRUNGE |
9 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
AKKADIAN |
10 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
TARTABULL |
11 |
53 |
53 |
0.0000000 |
3 |
8.5 |
| 2 |
ACTIVIST INVESTING (GB) |
1 |
92 |
96 |
0.4000000 |
2 |
8.5 |
| 2 |
EARLY ADOPTER (GB) |
1 |
93 |
100 |
2.3928571 |
7 |
9.0 |
| 2 |
BAKERS STREET |
2 |
92 |
94 |
1.6833333 |
7 |
8.0 |
| 2 |
THEN |
3 |
99 |
99 |
2.7714286 |
1 |
9.0 |
| 2 |
BEUYS (IRE) |
4 |
103 |
107 |
1.5272727 |
4 |
8.0 |
| 2 |
NOTED |
5 |
74 |
105 |
1.3076923 |
6 |
11.0 |
| 2 |
RUNGIUS |
6 |
103 |
103 |
1.7132867 |
5 |
11.0 |
| 2 |
CRYSTAL QUEST |
7 |
108 |
111 |
2.6000000 |
2 |
11.0 |
| 2 |
VESTING (IRE) |
8 |
108 |
108 |
2.1696970 |
3 |
10.0 |
| 2 |
UNCAGED |
9 |
81 |
85 |
1.5000000 |
7 |
6.5 |
| 2 |
SOCIETY MAN |
10 |
84 |
104 |
0.5363636 |
7 |
9.0 |
| 2 |
LE GRIS |
11 |
90 |
100 |
1.1118881 |
1 |
9.0 |
| 3 |
BET THE GRAY |
1 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
CELEBRITY QUEST |
1 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
GLAMORIZE |
2 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
TOUCH OF MAGIC |
3 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
FIVE BARS |
4 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
ICECREAMFOREVRYONE |
5 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
JUST TELL ANNE |
6 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
ZEN YOGA |
7 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 3 |
TAM TAM |
8 |
NA |
NA |
0.0000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 4 |
ALZERO |
1 |
71 |
71 |
4.1000000 |
4 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
SPEIGHTFUL STORM |
1 |
64 |
64 |
0.0000000 |
7 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
EIGHTY GOLD |
2 |
39 |
63 |
2.6000000 |
9 |
5.5 |
| 4 |
GAMEBRED |
3 |
65 |
65 |
3.5000000 |
5 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
LIBERTY RISING |
4 |
41 |
67 |
-3.7000000 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 4 |
MOZAMBIQUE |
5 |
49 |
64 |
-2.9000000 |
3 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
COACH PITINO |
6 |
57 |
57 |
0.0000000 |
8 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
KEEPINITREAL |
7 |
76 |
77 |
1.6000000 |
3 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
CALL BOB |
8 |
61 |
81 |
4.1785714 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 4 |
LONG POUR |
9 |
44 |
44 |
0.0000000 |
9 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
MERICA'S BACK |
10 |
86 |
93 |
0.4000000 |
2 |
6.0 |
| 5 |
ALPINE GIANT |
1 |
70 |
70 |
39.0000000 |
1 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
INFLAMMABELLE |
2 |
79 |
79 |
1.7833333 |
2 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
FABULOUS FOX |
3 |
51 |
92 |
-2.5363636 |
3 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
MARVELOUS MADISON |
4 |
79 |
93 |
8.4000000 |
7 |
8.5 |
| 5 |
LONG LEGGED QUEEN |
5 |
72 |
85 |
-1.2500000 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 5 |
ANNASCAUL |
6 |
84 |
97 |
0.9000000 |
2 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
OLIVIA'S GRACE |
7 |
79 |
79 |
5.5000000 |
1 |
5.5 |
Notes on the Bayesian approach
- This uses a conjugate Normal–Inverse-Gamma model for each horse’s latent speed and draws posterior predictive samples; win probability is the chance a simulated next speed is the maximum in its field.
- Heavy tails come from the Student-t predictive, improving robustness with sparse/noisy histories.
- Recency weighting (half-life in race counts) down-weights old races; set
BAYES_HALF_LIFE_RACES <- NA to turn off.
- If you later want true MCMC/hierarchical effects, we can wire a
brms/rstanarm alternative and keep the same max-of-field simulation to produce Win% (Bayes, naive).