Race Day Dossier

Historical Speeds & Outcomes — Horse-by-Horse

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• Lines are right-aligned: most-recent race is always on the far right.

Bayesian Win Probabilities from Past Speeds

Summary — Today’s Card

Summary — Today’s Card (Distance-Aware & Baseline)
Post Speed% Win% (hist) SpdFinish_Idx Last Speed Last Finish Win% (Bayes, naive) Win% (Bayes, @ dist) Exp Speed @ dist
1
CITY BLOCKS 3 45.5 18.2 63.6 83 1 20.8 19.4 73.6
INTENTIOUS 1 22.2 33.3 55.6 84 1 16.8 16.2 72.7
GRACE AND GRIT 7 28.6 14.3 42.9 83 5 19.8 16.2 67.7
STRACA 2 20.0 20.0 40.0 74 3 10.8 7.4 62.1
ACCELERATED NEWS 6 20.0 20.0 40.0 76 1 18.2 20.6 73.6
FARM HOUSE 5 16.7 16.7 33.3 66 7 5.5 11.1 66.2
CRIMSON QUEEN 4 0.0 25.0 25.0 68 7 8.1 9.0 63.4
2
MAPPY 5 100.0 0.0 100.0 63 9 7.2 1.0 68.5
ST. BRIGID'S CROSS 8 50.0 0.0 50.0 63 4 5.8 6.0 79.0
TWO BY TWO BY TWO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25 7 3.8 17.8 89.0
FLYING PHOEBE 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 42 8 4.5 12.7 85.0
DOLCE VINO 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 26 6 3.8 15.4 86.2
TAKEN BY THE WIND 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 17.4 10.0 79.7
IRTIQAA 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 18.1 9.5 79.7
BIRCH RUN 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 31 6 4.0 7.0 72.9
ATHENA'S FURY 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 17.6 10.2 79.7
GRAND LUXX 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 17.5 10.3 79.7
3
KAY CUP 3 100.0 66.7 166.7 93 1 35.2 24.0 79.8
CARMEN'S CANDY JAR 1 66.7 11.1 77.8 70 9 10.1 5.3 77.6
VEHEMENTE 2 25.0 50.0 75.0 85 3 21.2 20.2 85.9
LOTTIE MARGARET 4 16.7 50.0 66.7 91 1 14.9 22.7 86.5
VALTELLINA 5 0.0 30.0 30.0 86 2 18.5 27.9 89.6
4
MIZTERTONIC 7 60.0 20.0 80.0 82 2 23.2 25.9 86.7
ORTUS 8 25.0 25.0 50.0 80 6 17.0 14.2 81.8
MO KREESA 5 14.3 28.6 42.9 80 1 9.6 12.1 78.4
OUTTAWATERBURY 4 20.0 20.0 40.0 81 7 12.1 5.6 76.2
THE CRAFTSMAN 1 0.0 33.3 33.3 76 1 4.1 12.3 77.8
AELFGAR 3 8.3 25.0 33.3 68 7 5.1 2.3 75.5
COACH CASE 6 0.0 33.3 33.3 75 5 10.1 13.0 79.0
GOLDEN REIGN 9 0.0 25.0 25.0 58 5 8.0 6.5 77.6
NEW MATTHEW 2 0.0 16.7 16.7 71 4 1.7 2.2 70.2
SENEGAL 10 0.0 10.0 10.0 76 3 9.0 5.8 77.6
5
DEVILISH GRIN 6 100.0 0.0 100.0 74 2 9.0 5.3 77.1
BEACH OF DREAMS 11 100.0 0.0 100.0 56 2 5.5 8.6 82.0
MAKEALITTLELOVE 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.5 9.5 79.7
SERAPHINA SEA 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 52 6 5.5 9.5 82.9
FONZI ANGEL 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 51 4 4.4 9.3 83.1
PAN PAN 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67 3 5.3 2.4 75.9
CARADISE 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 50 7 4.5 9.6 83.3
AMERICAN MINK 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.8 8.3 79.7
CHOPPIN BROCKLEY 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 7 4.0 19.2 91.3
SMILING ROSIE 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.0 8.8 79.7
RIVER EMPRESS 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.4 9.5 79.7
6
JETTY'S HOME 7 100.0 0.0 100.0 71 2 3.4 3.0 69.9
LOOKS TO KILL 12 66.7 0.0 66.7 32 6 1.4 0.9 55.4
DONNA ROMANO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.4 12.7 67.4
MARGARITA MOLLY 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.1 11.5 67.4
BROCKLEY DRIVE 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.7 12.3 67.4
SPARKLING MAMA 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 58 3 3.9 1.9 59.8
ALWAYS IN PLAY 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 49 6 3.2 1.4 56.5
BESIDE YOU 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.8 12.9 67.4
SALT PRINCESS 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 62 2 3.3 0.7 53.6
RIYAH AL NIL 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.7 11.9 67.4
SOUTH PHILLY SLIDE 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.5 11.8 67.4
CLAP BACK 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 9.8 11.7 67.4
WANDER WOMAN 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 69 3 5.9 4.5 68.7
L'ECLAIR 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 61 5 4.1 2.8 66.5
7
GIN'S BEACH ROAD 12 100.0 0.0 100.0 81 3 11.6 15.1 77.3
FAST MARKET 6 71.4 0.0 71.4 79 2 7.5 4.4 73.9
GELLHORN 2 50.0 0.0 50.0 76 3 9.1 7.9 76.8
SPORTING LADY 7 16.7 0.0 16.7 74 2 5.8 3.8 74.3
TRUTH AND BEAUTY 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 55 4 3.6 1.7 48.4
SHADES OF JADE 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 75 2 8.4 6.9 74.2
GET BACK LORETTA 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 12.3 14.2 64.9
JUSTINE 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.3 13.8 64.9
D J JAZZY (FR) 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.8 14.5 64.9
MARITAL TRUST 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 59 8 3.4 1.5 48.2
SONJA HENIE 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 74 3 4.0 1.8 61.9
DANCING GIRL 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.1 14.2 64.9
8
BRAGANZA 4 27.3 27.3 54.5 64 6 15.9 26.9 88.3
CATHERINE WHEEL 5 30.0 20.0 50.0 89 2 19.8 15.6 86.9
CUPID'S HEART 7 25.0 12.5 37.5 75 5 20.6 15.0 83.2
GOODNIGHTNGODBLESS 8 0.0 33.3 33.3 82 4 9.6 13.7 84.7
LEMON MUFFIN 3 20.0 10.0 30.0 76 4 8.7 5.5 80.6
PERFECT SHOT 6 9.1 18.2 27.3 91 1 8.8 5.9 82.8
JUST MUSIC 1 0.0 25.0 25.0 83 5 7.1 5.3 78.0
KHALI MAGIC 2 12.5 12.5 25.0 84 3 9.6 12.1 83.8
9
TRAIN THE TRAINER 5 100.0 75.0 175.0 98 1 39.4 38.7 93.5
SKY MASTERSON 3 63.6 9.1 72.7 79 9 8.6 5.4 80.8
KING'S LEAP 1 0.0 40.0 40.0 88 1 15.3 16.8 88.7
HIT THE POST 6 20.0 20.0 40.0 92 2 15.1 23.7 87.1
IRON DOME 4 0.0 33.3 33.3 95 1 17.1 13.0 85.8
JUST LICORICE 2 0.0 20.0 20.0 63 5 4.5 2.5 74.0
10
GIULIANA'S DREAM 6 66.7 0.0 66.7 20 7 3.9 1.2 32.4
NO ORDINARY LOVE 2 50.0 0.0 50.0 78 2 9.8 8.3 72.1
GARDEN OF GRACE 9 33.3 0.0 33.3 77 3 7.9 8.5 71.8
MISS IM PULSIVE 11 33.3 0.0 33.3 41 4 3.5 2.0 52.7
ULTRA CAMEO 8 25.0 0.0 25.0 37 9 3.5 0.5 48.7
MANHATTAN BEAUTY 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 6 15.0 17.4 64.9
ONE LAST KNOCK 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 67 5 8.3 5.9 66.7
AUDEMARS 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.1 17.0 64.9
STORMY CENTRAL 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 13.5 16.7 64.9
RED BOOTS 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 14.2 17.8 64.9
APERITIF 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 72 4 5.4 4.7 61.5

Leaderboard — Top Picks by Race

Top 3 by SpdFinish_Idx
Post Speed% Win% (hist) SpdFinish_Idx Last Speed Last Finish Win% (Bayes, naive) Win% (Bayes, @ dist) Exp Speed @ dist
1
CITY BLOCKS 3 45.5 18.2 63.6 83 1 20.8 19.4 73.6
INTENTIOUS 1 22.2 33.3 55.6 84 1 16.8 16.2 72.7
GRACE AND GRIT 7 28.6 14.3 42.9 83 5 19.8 16.2 67.7
2
MAPPY 5 100.0 0.0 100.0 63 9 7.2 1.0 68.5
ST. BRIGID'S CROSS 8 50.0 0.0 50.0 63 4 5.8 6.0 79.0
TWO BY TWO BY TWO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25 7 3.8 17.8 89.0
3
KAY CUP 3 100.0 66.7 166.7 93 1 35.2 24.0 79.8
CARMEN'S CANDY JAR 1 66.7 11.1 77.8 70 9 10.1 5.3 77.6
VEHEMENTE 2 25.0 50.0 75.0 85 3 21.2 20.2 85.9
4
MIZTERTONIC 7 60.0 20.0 80.0 82 2 23.2 25.9 86.7
ORTUS 8 25.0 25.0 50.0 80 6 17.0 14.2 81.8
MO KREESA 5 14.3 28.6 42.9 80 1 9.6 12.1 78.4
5
DEVILISH GRIN 6 100.0 0.0 100.0 74 2 9.0 5.3 77.1
BEACH OF DREAMS 11 100.0 0.0 100.0 56 2 5.5 8.6 82.0
MAKEALITTLELOVE 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.5 9.5 79.7
6
JETTY'S HOME 7 100.0 0.0 100.0 71 2 3.4 3.0 69.9
LOOKS TO KILL 12 66.7 0.0 66.7 32 6 1.4 0.9 55.4
DONNA ROMANO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.4 12.7 67.4
7
GIN'S BEACH ROAD 12 100.0 0.0 100.0 81 3 11.6 15.1 77.3
FAST MARKET 6 71.4 0.0 71.4 79 2 7.5 4.4 73.9
GELLHORN 2 50.0 0.0 50.0 76 3 9.1 7.9 76.8
8
BRAGANZA 4 27.3 27.3 54.5 64 6 15.9 26.9 88.3
CATHERINE WHEEL 5 30.0 20.0 50.0 89 2 19.8 15.6 86.9
CUPID'S HEART 7 25.0 12.5 37.5 75 5 20.6 15.0 83.2
9
TRAIN THE TRAINER 5 100.0 75.0 175.0 98 1 39.4 38.7 93.5
SKY MASTERSON 3 63.6 9.1 72.7 79 9 8.6 5.4 80.8
KING'S LEAP 1 0.0 40.0 40.0 88 1 15.3 16.8 88.7
10
GIULIANA'S DREAM 6 66.7 0.0 66.7 20 7 3.9 1.2 32.4
NO ORDINARY LOVE 2 50.0 0.0 50.0 78 2 9.8 8.3 72.1
GARDEN OF GRACE 9 33.3 0.0 33.3 77 3 7.9 8.5 71.8
Top 3 by Win% (Bayes, @ dist)
Post Speed% Win% (hist) SpdFinish_Idx Last Speed Last Finish Win% (Bayes, naive) Win% (Bayes, @ dist) Exp Speed @ dist
1
ACCELERATED NEWS 6 20.0 20.0 40.0 76 1 18.2 20.6 73.6
CITY BLOCKS 3 45.5 18.2 63.6 83 1 20.8 19.4 73.6
INTENTIOUS 1 22.2 33.3 55.6 84 1 16.8 16.2 72.7
2
TWO BY TWO BY TWO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25 7 3.8 17.8 89.0
DOLCE VINO 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 26 6 3.8 15.4 86.2
FLYING PHOEBE 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 42 8 4.5 12.7 85.0
3
VALTELLINA 5 0.0 30.0 30.0 86 2 18.5 27.9 89.6
KAY CUP 3 100.0 66.7 166.7 93 1 35.2 24.0 79.8
LOTTIE MARGARET 4 16.7 50.0 66.7 91 1 14.9 22.7 86.5
4
MIZTERTONIC 7 60.0 20.0 80.0 82 2 23.2 25.9 86.7
ORTUS 8 25.0 25.0 50.0 80 6 17.0 14.2 81.8
COACH CASE 6 0.0 33.3 33.3 75 5 10.1 13.0 79.0
5
CHOPPIN BROCKLEY 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 7 4.0 19.2 91.3
CARADISE 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 50 7 4.5 9.6 83.3
MAKEALITTLELOVE 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.5 9.5 79.7
6
BESIDE YOU 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.8 12.9 67.4
DONNA ROMANO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.4 12.7 67.4
BROCKLEY DRIVE 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.7 12.3 67.4
7
GIN'S BEACH ROAD 12 100.0 0.0 100.0 81 3 11.6 15.1 77.3
D J JAZZY (FR) 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.8 14.5 64.9
GET BACK LORETTA 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 12.3 14.2 64.9
8
BRAGANZA 4 27.3 27.3 54.5 64 6 15.9 26.9 88.3
CATHERINE WHEEL 5 30.0 20.0 50.0 89 2 19.8 15.6 86.9
CUPID'S HEART 7 25.0 12.5 37.5 75 5 20.6 15.0 83.2
9
TRAIN THE TRAINER 5 100.0 75.0 175.0 98 1 39.4 38.7 93.5
HIT THE POST 6 20.0 20.0 40.0 92 2 15.1 23.7 87.1
KING'S LEAP 1 0.0 40.0 40.0 88 1 15.3 16.8 88.7
10
RED BOOTS 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 14.2 17.8 64.9
MANHATTAN BEAUTY 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 6 15.0 17.4 64.9
AUDEMARS 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.1 17.0 64.9
Top 3 by Win% (Bayes, naive)
Post Speed% Win% (hist) SpdFinish_Idx Last Speed Last Finish Win% (Bayes, naive) Win% (Bayes, @ dist) Exp Speed @ dist
1
CITY BLOCKS 3 45.5 18.2 63.6 83 1 20.8 19.4 73.6
GRACE AND GRIT 7 28.6 14.3 42.9 83 5 19.8 16.2 67.7
ACCELERATED NEWS 6 20.0 20.0 40.0 76 1 18.2 20.6 73.6
2
IRTIQAA 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 18.1 9.5 79.7
ATHENA'S FURY 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 17.6 10.2 79.7
GRAND LUXX 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 17.5 10.3 79.7
3
KAY CUP 3 100.0 66.7 166.7 93 1 35.2 24.0 79.8
VEHEMENTE 2 25.0 50.0 75.0 85 3 21.2 20.2 85.9
VALTELLINA 5 0.0 30.0 30.0 86 2 18.5 27.9 89.6
4
MIZTERTONIC 7 60.0 20.0 80.0 82 2 23.2 25.9 86.7
ORTUS 8 25.0 25.0 50.0 80 6 17.0 14.2 81.8
OUTTAWATERBURY 4 20.0 20.0 40.0 81 7 12.1 5.6 76.2
5
AMERICAN MINK 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.8 8.3 79.7
MAKEALITTLELOVE 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.5 9.5 79.7
RIVER EMPRESS 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.4 9.5 79.7
6
RIYAH AL NIL 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.7 11.9 67.4
DONNA ROMANO 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.4 12.7 67.4
BESIDE YOU 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 10.8 12.9 67.4
7
GET BACK LORETTA 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 12.3 14.2 64.9
D J JAZZY (FR) 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 11.8 14.5 64.9
GIN'S BEACH ROAD 12 100.0 0.0 100.0 81 3 11.6 15.1 77.3
8
CUPID'S HEART 7 25.0 12.5 37.5 75 5 20.6 15.0 83.2
CATHERINE WHEEL 5 30.0 20.0 50.0 89 2 19.8 15.6 86.9
BRAGANZA 4 27.3 27.3 54.5 64 6 15.9 26.9 88.3
9
TRAIN THE TRAINER 5 100.0 75.0 175.0 98 1 39.4 38.7 93.5
IRON DOME 4 0.0 33.3 33.3 95 1 17.1 13.0 85.8
KING'S LEAP 1 0.0 40.0 40.0 88 1 15.3 16.8 88.7
10
AUDEMARS 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 15.1 17.0 64.9
MANHATTAN BEAUTY 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 6 15.0 17.4 64.9
RED BOOTS 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA 14.2 17.8 64.9

Per-Race Deep Dive (Interactive, Right-Aligned, Linked; NA-safe)

Race 1 — Field Overview

Race 2 — Field Overview

Race 3 — Field Overview

Race 4 — Field Overview

Race 5 — Field Overview

Race 6 — Field Overview

Race 7 — Field Overview

Race 8 — Field Overview

Race 9 — Field Overview

Race 10 — Field Overview

Appendix — Raw Parsed Rows (sample)

Parsed Rows (first 50)
race_index horse_name post speed_last speed_best speed_trend finish_last dist_last_f
1 INTENTIOUS 1 84 84 1.7000000 1 6.00
1 STRACA 2 74 80 4.8000000 3 7.00
1 CITY BLOCKS 3 83 86 0.8363636 1 5.50
1 CRIMSON QUEEN 4 68 68 5.5000000 7 8.50
1 FARM HOUSE 5 66 70 1.5428571 7 7.00
1 ACCELERATED NEWS 6 76 83 -1.0000000 1 6.50
1 GRACE AND GRIT 7 83 83 3.6071429 5 8.50
2 TWO BY TWO BY TWO 1 25 25 0.0000000 7 5.50
2 FLYING PHOEBE 2 42 42 0.0000000 8 5.50
2 DOLCE VINO 3 26 54 -28.0000000 6 5.50
2 TAKEN BY THE WIND 4 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
2 MAPPY 5 63 71 -8.0000000 9 8.50
2 IRTIQAA 6 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
2 BIRCH RUN 7 31 64 -14.5000000 6 6.00
2 ST. BRIGID'S CROSS 8 63 65 -2.0000000 4 5.50
2 ATHENA'S FURY 9 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
2 GRAND LUXX 10 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
3 CARMEN'S CANDY JAR 1 70 86 -0.4500000 9 8.00
3 VEHEMENTE 2 85 88 2.2261905 3 8.50
3 KAY CUP 3 93 93 7.5000000 1 8.50
3 LOTTIE MARGARET 4 91 91 4.0857143 1 8.50
3 VALTELLINA 5 86 90 1.5757576 2 8.50
4 THE CRAFTSMAN 1 76 76 12.5000000 1 8.50
4 NEW MATTHEW 2 71 72 1.2000000 4 8.32
4 AELFGAR 3 68 84 1.4475524 7 9.00
4 OUTTAWATERBURY 4 81 98 0.4848485 7 11.00
4 MO KREESA 5 80 91 4.9642857 1 8.00
4 COACH CASE 6 75 85 0.5000000 5 8.00
4 MIZTERTONIC 7 82 99 1.6666667 2 8.50
4 ORTUS 8 80 96 -1.2142857 6 8.50
4 GOLDEN REIGN 9 58 91 -0.1433566 5 8.00
4 SENEGAL 10 76 92 0.7757576 3 9.00
5 MAKEALITTLELOVE 1 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
5 SERAPHINA SEA 2 52 52 0.0000000 6 6.00
5 FONZI ANGEL 3 51 51 0.0000000 4 6.00
5 PAN PAN 4 67 67 19.0000000 3 8.00
5 CARADISE 5 50 50 0.0000000 7 6.00
5 DEVILISH GRIN 6 74 74 7.0000000 2 5.50
5 AMERICAN MINK 7 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
5 CHOPPIN BROCKLEY 8 15 15 0.0000000 7 5.50
5 SMILING ROSIE 9 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
5 RIVER EMPRESS 10 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
5 BEACH OF DREAMS 11 56 56 0.0000000 2 6.00
6 DONNA ROMANO 1 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
6 MARGARITA MOLLY 2 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
6 BROCKLEY DRIVE 3 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
6 SPARKLING MAMA 4 58 58 0.0000000 3 6.00
6 ALWAYS IN PLAY 5 49 49 0.0000000 6 5.50
6 BESIDE YOU 6 NA NA 0.0000000 NA NA
6 JETTY'S HOME 7 71 71 7.0000000 2 6.00

Notes on the Bayesian approach

  • This uses a conjugate Normal–Inverse-Gamma model for each horse’s latent speed and draws posterior predictive samples; win probability is the chance a simulated next speed is the maximum in its field.
  • Heavy tails come from the Student-t predictive, improving robustness with sparse/noisy histories.
  • Recency weighting (half-life in race counts) down-weights old races; set BAYES_HALF_LIFE_RACES <- NA to turn off.
  • If you later want true MCMC/hierarchical effects, we can wire a brms/rstanarm alternative and keep the same max-of-field simulation to produce Win% (Bayes, naive).